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  Cost-Benefit Analysis of President Boyer's Decision to Sign the 1825 Indemnity By Patrick Prézeau Stephenson Context and Assumptions • Historical Situation: In 1825, under the threat of 14 heavily armed French warships, Jean-Pierre Boyer agreed to pay an indemnity of 60 million francs or to France to secure recognition of Haiti’s independence and avoid military devastation. • Assumptions: o Haiti's GDP in 1825: 6 million francs or. o Cost of Total War:  Total devastation of Port-au-Prince and major coastal cities.  Disruption of all economic activity.  Population losses, destroyed infrastructure, famine. o Duration of War: 10 years (analogous to the Napoleonic Wars or other prolonged conflicts of the era). o GDP Decline during War: Assume GDP falls by 80% due to destruction and famine (common historical benchmark during wartime occupation). o Recovery Period: Assume that after the war, Haiti would need another 15 years to return to pre-war GDP levels (c...

  Jean-Pierre Boyer and the 1825 Ransom: Choosing the Lesser Evil to Secure Haiti’s Survival By Patrick Prézeau Stephenson (Le Français suit) By 1825, Haiti stood at a crossroads that no young nation should ever have faced: total war against the most powerful navy in Europe — France — or accepting an unbearable financial burden to guarantee its sovereignty. President Jean-Pierre Boyer, often criticized for his acceptance of the "ransom of independence," made the grim but rational choice: faced with the threat of military annihilation, economic blockade, and renewed slavery, signing the ruinous indemnity agreement was the safer path to preserve Haiti’s very existence. The Heavy Legacy of Isolation and Threats From its birth in fire and blood in 1804, Haiti found itself shunned by the colonial powers of the Atlantic world. France, in particular, refused to recognize the legitimacy of a Black republic forged by formerly enslaved people. Instead, from 1814 onward, the French Bou...

  U.S. Labels Haitian Gangs as Foreign Terrorist Organizations — A Policy Shift we Long Argued Was Inevitable By Patrick Prézeau Stephenson (Le Français suit) Port-au-Prince, Haiti — April 19, 2025. In a sweeping move that reshapes the U.S. approach to Haiti’s security crisis, the Trump administration has announced plans to formally designate Haiti’s most powerful criminal networks—including the infamous Viv Ansanm coalition and the rural-based Gran Grif armed group—as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) [1]. As one of the earliest analysts to publicly argue that these gangs met the threshold for terrorism, I believe this decision—though politically fraught—is long overdue. The implications are profound. Under the new classification, the U.S. will be able to pursue not only gang members but also those who enable them—from arms traffickers and money launderers to complicit Haitian politicians and business elites. Anyone found providing "material support" to these groups wi...

  Haiti’s Poligarchs and the Global Playbook of State Capture By Patrick Prézeau Stephenson (Le Français suit) As the United States confronts an unprecedented fusion of political power and private wealth under the renewed Trump administration, Haiti serves as a sobering mirror—one that reflects the devastating consequences of unchecked alliances between oligarchs and politicians. While many in Washington debate the implications of Elon Musk's expanding influence over government contracts and policy [1], Haitians are living through the long-term fallout of what political scientists now term “state capture.” The term may sound academic, but its reality is all too concrete: in Haiti, this alliance—between economic elites, transnational criminal networks, and politicians—has hollowed out institutions, weakened democratic governance, and driven the country into a tailspin of violence, displacement, and despair. And the similarities to the rising trend of “poligarchy” in the U.S.—where ...

  Haiti’s Quagmire: A Nation on the Brink of Collapse By Patrick Prézeau Stephenso n (Le Français suit) More than just a failed state, Haiti has become a battlefield where the collapse of governance, economic decay, and unchecked violence converge into a perfect storm. In 2025, the country is no longer grappling with instability—it is drowning in it. While the international community debates frameworks, roadmaps, and security missions, the Haitian people suffer a slow-motion implosion of their society. The Transitional Presidential Council, struggling to hold legitimacy, faces threats not only from criminal syndicates but from elements within the political class itself. Rumors of soft coups, insurgent plans, and hidden alliances among gang leaders and former military figures swirl amid protests, drone strikes, and high-level diplomatic visits. Every institution meant to uphold order is fractured or incapacitated. A Blood-Stained Capital Port-au-Prince is now the most dangerous city...

  Donald Trump: The Art of the Academic Cover-Up — How a Reality Star Crashed the Global Economy (Again) By Patrick Prézeau Stephenson Congratulations, America. You did it again. Isn’t it heartwarming to know that the fate of the global economy now rests in the hands of a man that some called ‘a craven soulless moron” who threatened to sue his alma mater over the release of his college grades? Donald J. Trump, the self-proclaimed “very stable genius,” once told the world he had “one of the highest IQs,” but also threatened legal action against the schools he attended if they dared reveal the truth about his academic... let’s call them “struggles.” That’s right—this same man who now pontificates on tariffs, interest rates, global trade, and the “China problem” once sicced his lawyer, Michael Cohen, on the College Board to hide his SAT scores like they were classified nuclear codes. So what does it say about us that this man, who spent two years floundering at Fordham before transfer...

  Haiti’s Leadership Vacuum and the Fragile Path Forward: A Common Responsibility By Patrick Prézeau Stephenson (Le Français suit) In the unforgiving chaos of Port-au-Prince, where criminal gangs control more than 85% of the capital and even the Presidential Palace lies at the mercy of armed factions, Haiti is staring into the abyss of state collapse. The transitional Presidential Council (CPT), established in April 2024 as a last-ditch attempt to stabilize governance after Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s ouster, has so far failed to restore security, inspire confidence or exert authority. The result is a dangerous vacuum—a power void that criminal syndicates, mafia-linked politicians, and opportunistic foreign actors are racing to fill. As Haiti’s democratic institutions lie in ruins, and the US disengagement, CARICOM has emerged as one of the few credible regional actors willing to intervene. Prime Minister Mia Mottley of Barbados, now serving as CARICOM’s rotating chair, has taken...

 Trump’s Doomed Chess Play: Why Tariffs, Tension, and Theater Won’t Save the American Economy By Patrick Prézeau Stephenson (Le Français suit) Donald Trump has launched a second act on the global economic stage, and like any showman returning for an encore, he’s doubling down on his signature moves: tariffs, tough talk, and transactional diplomacy. His backers call it a 4D chess strategy designed to rebalance trade, revive American manufacturing, and reassert geopolitical dominance. But here’s the harsh truth: this is not chess. It’s checkers played on a chessboard—loud, disruptive, and ultimately self-defeating. The illusion of strategy can be persuasive. It’s easy to mistake confrontation for leadership, and economic pain for economic transformation. But for all the noise about "re-shoring" and "America First," Trump's economic playbook is more likely to trigger stagflation, global retaliation, and political blowback than a new industrial renaissance. Tariffs...