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Bois-Caïman n’est pas un ciment national : Dominique Dupuy aurait mieux fait de convoquer Arcahaie

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  Bois-Caïman Is Not a National Cement: Dominique Dupuy Should Have Invoked Arcahaie Instead By Patrick Prézeau Stephenson *  (Le Français suit) CAP-HAÏTIEN — Some symbols unite, others divide. By calling for “a second Bois-Caïman,” former Foreign Affairs Minister Dominique Dupuy chose one of the most controversial episodes in Haiti’s national narrative to embody unity. It is a bold choice — but perhaps a poorly calibrated one. Because Bois-Caïman, despite its mythic power, has never been a shared foundation for the entire nation. It is a fragmented, disputed, and often instrumentalized story, deeply tied to a religious practice that fewer than one in five Haitians openly claim. By trying to make it a point of convergence, Dupuy risks replacing a national symbol with an identity symbol. A founding myth… but not a unifying one In popular memory, Bois-Caïman is presented as the sacred spark of the Haitian Revolution: a Vodou ceremony, a collective oath, a call to freed...
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Du déterminisme à l’inférence probabiliste : une avancée méthodologique dans la mesure des pertes de capital humain liées à la violence en Haïti

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  From Deterministic Estimates to Probabilistic Inference: Advancing the Measurement of Violence‑Induced Human Capital Loss in Haiti Patrick Prézeau Stephenson , Christian Louis , and Raymond F. Lerebours POLLNEX Insights, 2026. (Le Français suit) Abstract In 2025, Surin introduced the first macro‑economic quantification of gang‑related mortality in Haiti using a deterministic valuation of human capital loss. While foundational, deterministic methods impose fixed parameters on a context characterized by extreme uncertainty, data scarcity, and structural volatility. This article demonstrates why a probabilistic Monte Carlo framework—implemented in 2026 using POLLNEX’s simulation engine—constitutes a qualitative and methodological advance. By incorporating parameter uncertainty, distributional variability, and stochastic dynamics, the probabilistic approach yields more robust, policy‑relevant estimates of violence‑induced economic loss. 1. Introduction Surin’s L’hémorragie invisible...
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