Du déterminisme à l’inférence probabiliste : une avancée méthodologique dans la mesure des pertes de capital humain liées à la violence en Haïti
From Deterministic Estimates to Probabilistic Inference: Advancing the Measurement of Violence‑Induced Human Capital Loss in Haiti Patrick Prézeau Stephenson , Christian Louis , and Raymond F. Lerebours POLLNEX Insights, 2026. (Le Français suit) Abstract In 2025, Surin introduced the first macro‑economic quantification of gang‑related mortality in Haiti using a deterministic valuation of human capital loss. While foundational, deterministic methods impose fixed parameters on a context characterized by extreme uncertainty, data scarcity, and structural volatility. This article demonstrates why a probabilistic Monte Carlo framework—implemented in 2026 using POLLNEX’s simulation engine—constitutes a qualitative and methodological advance. By incorporating parameter uncertainty, distributional variability, and stochastic dynamics, the probabilistic approach yields more robust, policy‑relevant estimates of violence‑induced economic loss. 1. Introduction Surin’s L’hémorragie invisible...
