Articles

Du lambi aux urnes : Les Haïtiens disent clairement ce qu’ils veulent

Image
  From the Lambi to the Ballot Box: Haitians Are Telling the World What They Want By Patrick Prézeau Stephenson * (Le Français suit) I. The Lambi Has Sounded — And Haitians Have Answered For decades, Haiti’s political class and its international partners have claimed to speak for the Haitian people. But for the first time since the country’s descent into gang rule, Haitians have spoken for themselves — loudly, clearly, and with statistical precision. A nationwide, in‑person survey of 1,332 adults conducted in May 2026 offers a rare, representative snapshot of what Haitians expect from the next phase of UN and international support. And when read through the lens of the Manifeste Appel du Lambi — the emerging civic blueprint for Haiti’s reconstruction — the message is unmistakable: Haitians want security, justice, public services, and elections. Not one of these demands is optional. II. Security First — But Never Security Alone The survey’s most surprising finding is ...
Enregistrer un commentaire
Lire la suite

Bois-Caïman n’est pas un ciment national : Dominique Dupuy aurait mieux fait de convoquer Arcahaie

Image
  Bois-Caïman Is Not a National Cement: Dominique Dupuy Should Have Invoked Arcahaie Instead By Patrick Prézeau Stephenson *  (Le Français suit) CAP-HAÏTIEN — Some symbols unite, others divide. By calling for “a second Bois-Caïman,” former Foreign Affairs Minister Dominique Dupuy chose one of the most controversial episodes in Haiti’s national narrative to embody unity. It is a bold choice — but perhaps a poorly calibrated one. Because Bois-Caïman, despite its mythic power, has never been a shared foundation for the entire nation. It is a fragmented, disputed, and often instrumentalized story, deeply tied to a religious practice that fewer than one in five Haitians openly claim. By trying to make it a point of convergence, Dupuy risks replacing a national symbol with an identity symbol. A founding myth… but not a unifying one In popular memory, Bois-Caïman is presented as the sacred spark of the Haitian Revolution: a Vodou ceremony, a collective oath, a call to freed...
Enregistrer un commentaire
Lire la suite

Du déterminisme à l’inférence probabiliste : une avancée méthodologique dans la mesure des pertes de capital humain liées à la violence en Haïti

Image
  From Deterministic Estimates to Probabilistic Inference: Advancing the Measurement of Violence‑Induced Human Capital Loss in Haiti Patrick Prézeau Stephenson , Christian Louis , and Raymond F. Lerebours POLLNEX Insights, 2026. (Le Français suit) Abstract In 2025, Surin introduced the first macro‑economic quantification of gang‑related mortality in Haiti using a deterministic valuation of human capital loss. While foundational, deterministic methods impose fixed parameters on a context characterized by extreme uncertainty, data scarcity, and structural volatility. This article demonstrates why a probabilistic Monte Carlo framework—implemented in 2026 using POLLNEX’s simulation engine—constitutes a qualitative and methodological advance. By incorporating parameter uncertainty, distributional variability, and stochastic dynamics, the probabilistic approach yields more robust, policy‑relevant estimates of violence‑induced economic loss. 1. Introduction Surin’s L’hémorragie invisible...
Enregistrer un commentaire
Lire la suite